app/notes/20170105-1647.md
Pax ?
pax-question
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There's an idea in (popular) political science about
[Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana), the idea that for
several hundred years, Ancient Rome's preponderance of power created an
atmosphere of relative peace both inside and outside its borders. This was
supported by a massive, well-organized military who's the job it was to
enforce Roman law inside its borders, and suppress any enemies internal or
external.
This idea has been applied to other cases, in particular
[Pax Brittanica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Britannica) and [Pax
Americana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana). In all three of these
cases, the hegemon has had a dominating military in a specific
[battlespace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlespace) compared to any rival.
Rome had superior land armies, Britain had superior navies, and the US has a
superior air (and space) force. States were thus geared for supporting these
forces and reaping the economic benefits they gave. Rome's armies sustained
Rome's economies through slaves, Britain through mercantile trade, and the US
through rapid global soft and hard power projection.
The question therefore is what does the future hold for hegemonic peace?
We're probably in the middle of a Pax Americana so during the next few decades
we'll have 1) continued Pax Americana, 2) a shift of power to a different
hegemon (as happened to Pax Britanica at the end of the 19th century), or 3)
the world order devolves into having several localized powers that do not
necessarily cooperate for mutual peace and gain (as happened after Pax Romana
in the Middle Ages). Since military and economic power are tightly linked and
interdependent, I believe the new economic shift to the Internet will require
a new hegemon to develop and maintain technical and information superiority to
challenge the current world order. Many countries, particularly Russia and
China, have developed these cyberwarfare capabilities and successfully tested
them against adversaries. The US also has significant capabilities but
cyberwarfare is so far in such a nascent state that it's hard to establish
dominance. Hopefully, it won't require a real test like a repeat of the
Napoleonic wars or WWI/WWII.