data/problems/352.yml
---
:id: 352
:name: Blood tests
:url: https://projecteuler.net/problem=352
:content: "Each one of the 25 sheep in a flock must be tested for a rare virus, known
to affect 2% of the sheep population. An accurate and extremely sensitive PCR test
exists for blood samples, producing a clear positive / negative result, but it is
very time-consuming and expensive.\n\nBecause of the high cost, the vet-in-charge
suggests that instead of performing 25 separate tests, the following procedure can
be used instead: \n \nThe sheep are split into 5 groups of 5 sheep in each group.
For each group, the 5 samples are mixed together and a single test is performed.
Then,\n\n- If the result is negative, all the sheep in that group are deemed to
be virus-free.\n- If the result is positive, 5 additional tests will be performed
(a separate test for each animal) to determine the affected individual(s).\n\nSince
the probability of infection for any specific animal is only 0.02, the first test
(on the pooled samples) for each group will be:\n\n- Negative (and no more tests
needed) with probability 0.98<sup>5</sup> = 0.9039207968.\n- Positive (5 additional
tests needed) with probability 1 - 0.9039207968 = 0.0960792032.\n\nThus, the expected
number of tests for each group is 1 + 0.0960792032 × 5 = 1.480396016. \nConsequently,
all 5 groups can be screened using an average of only 1.480396016 × 5 = **7.40198008**
tests, which represents a huge saving of more than 70% !\n\nAlthough the scheme
we have just described seems to be very efficient, it can still be improved considerably
(always assuming that the test is sufficiently sensitive and that there are no adverse
effects caused by mixing different samples). E.g.:\n\n- We may start by running
a test on a mixture of all the 25 samples. It can be verified that in about 60.35%
of the cases this test will be negative, thus no more tests will be needed. Further
testing will only be required for the remaining 39.65% of the cases.\n- If we know
that at least one animal in a group of 5 is infected and the first 4 individual
tests come out negative, there is no need to run a test on the fifth animal (we
know that it must be infected).\n- We can try a different number of groups / different
number of animals in each group, adjusting those numbers at each level so that the
total expected number of tests will be minimised.\n\nTo simplify the very wide range
of possibilities, there is one restriction we place when devising the most cost-efficient
testing scheme: whenever we start with a mixed sample, all the sheep contributing
to that sample must be fully screened (i.e. a verdict of infected / virus-free must
be reached for all of them) before we start examining any other animals.\n\nFor
the current example, it turns out that the most cost-efficient testing scheme (we'll
call it the _optimal strategy_) requires an average of just **4.155452** tests!\n\nUsing
the optimal strategy, let T(<var>s</var>,<var>p</var>) represent the average number
of tests needed to screen a flock of <var>s</var> sheep for a virus having probability
<var>p</var> to be present in any individual. \nThus, rounded to six decimal places,
T(25, 0.02) = 4.155452 and T(25, 0.10) = 12.702124.\n\nFind ΣT(10000, p) for p=0.01,
0.02, 0.03, ... 0.50. \nGive your answer rounded to six decimal places.\n\n"